Household-level risk factors for secondary influenza-like illness in a rural area of Bangladesh

This article is made available for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.Objective To describe household‐level risk factors for secondary influenza‐like illness (ILI), an important public health concern in the low‐income population of Bangladesh. Methods Secondary analysis of control participants in a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effect of handwashing to prevent household ILI transmission. We recruited index‐case patients with ILI – fever (<5 years); fever, cough or sore throat (≥5 years) – from health facilities, collected information on household factors and conducted syndromic surveillance among household contacts for 10 days after resolution of index‐case patients’ symptoms. We evaluated the associations between household factors at baseline and secondary ILI among household contacts using negative binomial regression, accounting for clustering by household. Results Our sample was 1491 household contacts of 184 index‐case patients. Seventy‐one percentage reported that smoking occurred in their home, 27% shared a latrine with one other household and 36% shared a latrine with >1 other household. A total of 114 household contacts (7.6%) had symptoms of ILI during follow‐up. Smoking in the home (RRadj 1.9, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.0) and sharing a latrine with one household (RRadj 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.6) or >1 household (RRadj 3.1, 95% CI: 1.8–5.2) were independently associated with increased risk of secondary ILI. Conclusion Tobacco use in homes could increase respiratory illness in Bangladesh. The mechanism between use of shared latrines and household ILI transmission is not clear. It is possible that respiratory pathogens could be transmitted through faecal contact or contaminated fomites in shared latrines

The Role of Temperature and Humidity on Seasonal Influenza in Tropical Areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013

Background: The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. Method/ Findings: Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07-1.31) and 1.32 (1.08-1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08-1.93) and 1.97 (1.34-2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6-0.86) and 0.79 (0.69-0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7-0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05-1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influenza activity in Panama and west-central El Salvador departments (correlation coefficients: 0.5-0.9). Conclusions/Significance: The findings highlighted the association between influenza activity and specific humidity in these 3 tropical countries. Positive association with humidity was found in El Salvador and Panama. Negative association was found in the more subtropical Guatemala, similar to temperate regions. Of all the study locations, Guatemala had annual mean temperature and specific humidity that were lower than the others

Incidence and seasonality of respiratory viruses among medically attended children with acute respiratory infections in an Ecuador birth cohort, 2011-2014.

BACKGROUND: Ecuador annually has handwashing and respiratory hygiene campaigns and seasonal influenza vaccination to prevent respiratory virus illnesses but has yet to quantify disease burden and determine epidemic timing. METHODS: To identify respiratory virus burden and assess months with epidemic activity, we followed a birth cohort in northwest Ecuador during 2011-2014. Mothers brought children to the study clinic for routine checkups at ages 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8 years or if children experienced any acute respiratory illness symptoms (e.g., cough, fever, or difficulty breathing); clinical care was provided free of charge. Those with medically attended acute respiratory infections (MAARIs) were tested for common respiratory viruses via real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). RESULTS: In 2011, 2376 children aged 1-4 years (median 35 months) were enrolled in the respiratory cohort and monitored for 7017.5 child-years (cy). The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was 23.9 (95% CI 17.3-30.5), influenza 10.6 (2.4-18.8), adenoviruses 6.7 (4.6-28.0), parainfluenzas 5.0 (2.3-10.5), and rhinoviruses, bocaviruses, human metapneumoviruses, seasonal coronaviruses, and enteroviruses <3/100 cy among children aged 12-23 months and declined with age. Most (75%) influenza detections occurred April-September. CONCLUSION: Cohort children frequently had MAARIs, and while the incidence decreased rapidly among older children, more than one in five children aged 12-23 months tested positive for RSV, and one in 10 tested positive for influenza. Our findings suggest this substantial burden of influenza occurred more commonly during the winter Southern Hemisphere influenza season

Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

Workgroup report: Public health strategies for reducing aflatoxin exposure in developing countries

10.1289/ehp.9302Environmental Health Perspectives114121898-190

Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010-19: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using country-specific surveillance data to describe influenza epidemic activity could inform decisions on the timing of influenza vaccination. We analysed surveillance data from African countries to characterise the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics to inform national vaccination strategies. METHODS: We used publicly available sentinel data from African countries reporting to the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response FluNet platform that had 3-10 years of data collected during 2010-19. We calculated a 3-week moving proportion of samples positive for influenza virus and assessed epidemic timing using an aggregate average method. The start and end of each epidemic were defined as the first week when the proportion of positive samples exceeded or went below the annual mean, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive weeks. We categorised countries into five epidemic patterns: northern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in October-March; southern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in April-September; primarily northern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in southern hemisphere months; primarily southern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in northern hemisphere months; and year-round influenza transmission without a discernible northern hemisphere or southern hemisphere predominance (no clear pattern). FINDINGS: Of the 34 countries reporting data to FluNet, 25 had at least 3 years of data, representing 46% of the countries in Africa and 89% of Africa's population. Study countries reported RT-PCR respiratory virus results for a total of 503 609 specimens (median 12 971 [IQR 9607-20 960] per country-year), of which 74 001 (15%; median 2078 [IQR 1087-3008] per country-year) were positive for influenza viruses. 248 epidemics occurred across 236 country-years of data (median 10 [range 7-10] per country). Six (24%) countries had a northern hemisphere pattern (Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia). Eight (32%) had a primarily northern hemisphere pattern with some southern hemisphere epidemics (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Togo). Three (12%) had a primarily southern hemisphere pattern with some northern hemisphere epidemics (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda). Three (12%) had a southern hemisphere pattern (Central African Republic, South Africa, and Zambia). Five (20%) had no clear pattern (Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Rwanda). INTERPRETATION: Most countries had identifiable influenza epidemic periods that could be used to inform authorities of non-seasonal and seasonal influenza activity, guide vaccine timing, and promote timely interventions. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the Berber, Luganda, Xhosa, Chewa, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa and Afan Oromo translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates

Multiple reassortment events among highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses detected in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, little is known about the genomic composition and antigenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses, their geographic distribution, temporal patterns, or gene flow within the avian host population. Forty highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses isolated from humans and poultry in Bangladesh between 2008 and 2012 were analyzed by full genome sequencing and antigenic characterization. The analysis included viruses collected from avian hosts and environmental sampling in live bird markets, backyard poultry flocks, outbreak investigations in wild birds or poultry and from three human cases. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the ancestors of these viruses reassorted (1) with other gene lineages of the same clade, (2) between different clades and (3) with low pathogenicity avian influenza A virus subtypes. Bayesian estimates of the time of most recent common ancestry, combined with geographic information, provided evidence of probable routes and timelines of virus spread into and out of Bangladesh